These days I’ve seen a bunch of people watching whale addresses and trying to follow their trades. Honestly, I used to be quite stubborn about this, always thinking “I only look at on-chain data” is enough. It wasn’t until I got proven wrong a few times that I realized: the actions from the same address could be building a position, or just hedging, switching positions, or even balancing other strategies. If you follow and buy, you’re essentially taking on someone else’s risk exposure.

Especially now, with the debate over staking and shared security’s “compound yields” getting pretty intense, many big funds seem to be adding to their positions, but they might actually be splitting risks, or just absorbing liquidity before pulling out. Anyway, I don’t get excited when I see large inflows anymore. First, I check if they’re doing it in batches, if there are any reverse moves, or if they’re opening hedges at the same time… If I don’t understand, I just ignore it. Gradually dollar-cost averaging and rebalancing helps me sleep better.