Prices rebound briefly then continue to oscillate, with macro pressure and technical corrections occurring simultaneously

On April 19th, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at approximately $75,700, down about 2% over 24 hours. Earlier this morning, the price briefly surged to around $78,300 before quickly retreating, currently consolidating in the $75,000–$76,500 range. From a technical perspective, the 4-hour MACD has formed a death cross, indicating weakening short-term bullish momentum. Resistance is concentrated at the $77,000–$77,600 zone; the 1-hour RSI has fallen to 16.9 in the oversold territory, suggesting a short-term technical rebound is possible, but in the absence of increased capital inflows, it is likely just a corrective move.

On the macro front, Federal Reserve President Williams expects inflation to remain "significantly above" 3% in the coming months, further cooling expectations of rate cuts. The high-interest-rate environment continues to suppress valuation potential for interest-free assets. Meanwhile, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains volatile—former President Trump previously stated the strait is "completely open," but Iran later announced re-imposing restrictions, increasing geopolitical uncertainty and boosting market risk aversion. Institutional-wise, the U.S. Treasury recently injected liquidity into the financial system through a large-scale $15 billion treasury repurchase agreement, which is viewed as a positive signal for risk assets; spot Bitcoin ETF inflows in April have totaled about $1.6 billion, with BlackRock’s iBIT reaching a total scale of $64.35 billion, indicating ongoing institutional investment.

On-chain, the Bitcoin RHODL ratio has risen to 4.5, a three-year high, indicating short-term speculative holdings are cooling and shifting toward long-term holders, which is a positive sign for risk management. On the miner side, miner reserves have decreased by approximately 61,000 BTC in this cycle; Marathon Digital and Riot Platforms together reduced holdings by over 32,000 BTC in Q1, adding supply-side selling pressure.

Overall, technical oversold conditions combined with macro and geopolitical uncertainties suggest that short-term prices are likely to continue oscillating within the $75,000–$77,000 range, awaiting new catalysts.