Shouchuang Futures: Funds transfer, nearby soybean meal weak, deferred contracts strong

Today, domestic soybean meal futures for May remain weak and volatile, while deferred months are strengthening. Overnight, the cost of soybeans changed little, with U.S. soybeans slightly rising and Brazil’s CNF basis and premium slightly retreating. Next week, China and Brazil will negotiate soybean import phytosanitary policies, and the delayed arrival of Brazilian soybeans has weakened expectations, putting pressure on May contracts. The market shows a clear trend of long funds actively shifting positions to deferred contracts. Under the weak spot logic for nearby months, the valuation of deferred contracts remains low, and the risks associated with planting costs and freight costs triggered by the Middle East war continue to attract market attention. In terms of trading strategy, it is recommended to adopt a slightly bullish stance on deferred soybean meal contracts, but attention should be paid to the risk of the U.S. soybean acreage report at the end of the month. Short-term, it is not advisable to chase prices too aggressively. (First Capital Futures)