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Bitcoin's latest price surges against the trend, hitting $76k: How much further can the bulls go?

On April 15th, Bitcoin's latest price surged against the trend, reaching $76,120 intraday, rebounding over 22% from the previous low of $62,000.

The rally of the bulls sounded on the ruins of the bears, but the celebration lasted less than a day. The price quickly retreated to around $74,800, leaving a long upper shadow, like a spike piercing into the market.

How much further can Bitcoin's bulls go? Little Caishen believes the answer lies in three sets of data tearing at each other.

👉 The source of Bitcoin's surge against the trend

This latest surge in Bitcoin's price past $76k was never accidental. Three forces converged within the same time window.

The first force, a sudden shift in macro narrative. In March, core PPI year-over-year was only 3.8%, below the expected 4.1%, indicating inflation cooling faster than market expectations. Coupled with rising hopes for US-Iran talks and an nearly 8% decline in oil prices from highs, the market began re-pricing a more relaxed liquidity future.

The second force, institutional funds gathering in the shadows. A review shows Strategy invested $1 billion in one week to buy about 13,900 BTC at an average price of approximately $71,902; BlackRock's IBIT saw a net inflow of $292 million on April 15th, with total net inflows surpassing $64.2 billion. According to data from April 17th, whales have absorbed about 270k BTC over the past 30 days, the largest accumulation wave since 2013.

The third force, short sellers being squeezed in place. After the price broke through the key short-sell zone of $72,200 to $73,500, a new short squeeze was triggered, with about $219 million in positions wiped out within 24 hours.

All three forces exerted their strength simultaneously, and Bitcoin's latest price surged against the trend, hitting $76k — and that’s how it happened.

But it didn't stabilize.

👉 On-chain truth: Money is flowing in, but someone is reversing out

If Bitcoin's surge past $76k was applause, then on-chain data is the ticking countdown.

The more Bitcoin rises sharply, the more people are rushing to exit.

Signal 1: Exchanges start "receiving gifts"

As Bitcoin approached $76k, inflows to exchanges surged to about 11,000 BTC per hour, the highest since December 2025. This isn't retail saving money; the average deposit size reached 2.25 BTC, the highest since July 2024. Large transfers (single transfers over 1,000 BTC) accounted for over 40% of inflows, up from less than 10% before. This indicates: big players are distributing.

Signal 2: Short-term holders collectively "break even and run"

On April 14th, short-term holders transferred 63,000 profit-taking BTC to exchanges in a single day, the largest single-day transfer since 2026. On April 15th, Bitcoin realized profits of up to $1.14 billion in a single day, one of the highest figures this year. The $76,000 to $76,800 range coincides with traders' breakeven points, where many holders are at their profit or loss threshold. When breakeven, they sell—human nature never changes.

Signal 3: Whales' contradictory behavior of selling while accumulating

The same on-chain data also shows that whales have accumulated about 270k BTC over the past 30 days — the largest accumulation wave since 2013. Exchange reserves of BTC have fallen to their lowest level since December 2017. While whales are withdrawing coins from exchanges, they are also distributing at high levels. This isn't just simple "buy" or "sell"; it's a sophisticated tug-of-war between bulls and bears.

Signal 4: Derivatives market sends mixed signals

On April 16th, Bitcoin experienced intense tug-of-war within a $73,000 to $75,000 range over three hours, with about $283 million in liquidations throughout the day—$166 million long liquidations and $117 million short liquidations, a typical "double-sided squeeze." After the rebound, funding rates turned positive (around +0.0005), but the market interprets this as short covering rather than new long entries. Spot trading participation hasn't kept pace: spot volume continues to decline, indicating that maintaining above $75,000 requires stronger spot buying support.

👉 How far can the bulls go?

How much further can Bitcoin's price go? The direction will be decided by the confrontation between two forces.

Upward: Technical confirmation and macro support

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has broken above the upper trendline of the ascending triangle at $73,000. Little Caishen predicts that if the daily close can hold above $75,000 (a level also under the dual pressure of the 100-day and 120-day moving averages), the breakout will be confirmed. The next target will be the psychological barrier of $80,000, with a measured target further toward approximately $89,050.

On the macro front, if US-Iran talks continue to progress and inflation keeps cooling, market liquidity expectations could further improve, providing fundamental support for the price.

Downward: Profit-taking and momentum exhaustion

If selling pressure materializes, the $76,000 to $78,000 zone, with about $2.81 billion in short leverage liquidity, will become a key resistance. If the breakout fails, $72,600 will be the first line of defense, with support levels around $68,000 to $70,000.

It’s worth noting that a similar pattern appeared in January 2026, when the average deposit size rose to about 2 BTC, and Bitcoin's price subsequently fell from $100k to around $60k over several weeks.