Recently, there have been a bunch of people on the chain shouting "coincidence transfers," and I find myself wanting to roll my eyes a bit… To be honest, most of them are not coincidences; it's just that the paths haven't been broken down: A transfers to an aggregator/exchange hot wallet, and the hot wallet then distributes in batches; or it first passes through a routing contract, finally ending up at the same collection address. If you only focus on the final destination, of course it looks like "co-conspirators behind the scenes."

By the way, hardware wallets have been out of stock lately, and phishing links are everywhere. I can understand everyone's sudden tension, but don’t turn that tension into conspiracy theories. If you really want to investigate, just honestly write down the "why" behind each hop: who is paying the gas, which side looks automated, which side looks manual for withdrawal.

I’ve now lowered my expectations: being able to explain 70% of it on-chain is pretty good, and the rest can be considered noise… which makes it easier. I will still criticize projects that hide risks, but don’t scare yourself unnecessarily.