These days I’ve seen a bunch of people watching whale addresses and copying their moves, and I start to want to pour cold water on it... Large inflows and outflows don’t necessarily mean “they’re trying to dump,” sometimes it’s more like hedging/rebalancing, or even moving spot holdings to open reverse positions to lock in volatility. To put it simply, first see if they’re gradually accumulating in batches, or if they’re buying while throwing funds into derivatives to “cover the bed.” Not distinguishing between these two can easily lead to following others’ risk controls.

Recently, the testnet incentives and points system are the same; everyone is guessing whether the mainnet will issue tokens. The more excited the sentiment, the easier it is to mistake “activity” for “certainty.” I personally prefer to take an extra step: before large transactions, first change the frequently used address to a hardware signature + whitelist. It’s slower, but at least I won’t accidentally authorize something in the heat of the moment. Anyway, I’m cautious and would rather earn less and sleep peacefully.