Shouchuang Futures: Continuing the drawdown, caustic soda futures still have support

Spot Market, Shandong 32% Ion Exchange Membrane Alkali Weekly Average 681 Yuan/ton, up 4.61% week-on-week.
In terms of supply, this week the average utilization rate of domestic enterprises with a capacity of 100k tons or more for caustic soda is 83.9%, down 1.4% week-on-week.
The inventory at factory warehouses of nationwide fixed liquid caustic soda enterprises with a capacity of 200k tons or more is 500.7k tons (wet basis), down 6.28% week-on-week, up 20.22% year-on-year.
Geopolitical conflicts persist, and overseas olefin shortages are causing a gradual expansion of caustic soda production cuts and suspensions, tightening supply of imported caustic soda.
On the demand side, downstream alumina plant operation rates are down 0.8%, and viscose short-fiber capacity utilization rate is down 1.17% week-on-week.
Recently, domestic alumina plant restart progress has been relatively slow, with new alumina projects awaiting commissioning, and non-aluminum demand maintaining just-in-time needs.
In summary, due to the impact of overseas plant shutdowns, export demand for caustic soda remains optimistic.
It is expected that short-term caustic soda futures prices will remain volatile with a slight upward trend, paying attention to overseas plant changes and the progress of new downstream capacity deployment. (First Capital Futures)