These days, I see people linking the increase in stablecoin supply, ETF net inflows, and OTC money flowing in as if they are directly connected. Honestly, correlation does not equal causation. On-chain minting could also be for market making adjustments, cross-exchange arbitrage, or just holding in reserve for future opportunities—it's not necessarily "about to rally." Thinking about it later, I found it quite funny; whenever everyone gets anxious, they love to find a single indicator as the answer.

Adding to that, the recent repeated mentions of staking unlocks and token unlock calendars easily lead people to anxiety about selling pressure and cause misjudgments. What I currently pay more attention to is: whether funds are truly flowing into spot markets or lending, and whether there are abnormal cross-chain or smart contract permission changes; on the node side, I only dare to update gradually according to the version schedule—safety first. Don’t gamble based on emotions.