The Strait of Hormuz Flips Overnight: It Was Just Announced as Open, Then It Was Blocked Again

Last night, the international crude oil market experienced a rollercoaster ride. Iran’s foreign minister announced that the Strait of Hormuz was open for passage, causing international oil prices to plummet by 13.3% in an instant. Trump issued multiple statements right after, celebrating the victory. But today the story has reversed—Iran’s military announced that, due to the US breaking its promises, control of the strait has been restored to the previous state, and strict controls are back in place.

What’s interesting is that about 20 minutes before yesterday’s plunge, an investor went all in, putting $760 million shorting oil prices. This isn’t the first time—on March 23 and April 7 there were similar situations, all shortly before Trump made major policy adjustments regarding Iran’s war. The behind-the-scenes “hanky-panky” in capital markets—wherever there’s profit, there’s manipulation.

Now let’s get back to the situation. Yesterday, Iran’s so-called “fully open” status actually had restrictions all along: naval vessels weren’t allowed to pass, merchant ships had to report and take designated routes, and internationally it was generally understood that payment would be tiered. As for Trump’s 7 statements, Iran’s speaker directly labeled them as not true. Both sides are still locked in an extreme tug-of-war; it’s not as if Iran has conceded defeat as everyone might think.

Currently, on-chain prediction markets show that the probability of normal traffic in the strait being restored before April 31 is only 29%, and before May 31 is 69%. Last night, Brent crude fell from $99 to $86 at one point, and once the market cools down, it may rebound to around $98 on Monday. $BTC ‌