I'm not very good at... explaining on-chain charts clearly, but recently I've been hearing everyone say "Stablecoin supply has increased / ETFs are putting in money = a rally is coming," and I start to feel like hitting the pause button. Correlation can be very deceptive: more stablecoins might mean people are waiting on the sidelines for opportunities, or it could just be a shell game; ETF inflows and outflows are more like large funds adjusting their positions, not necessarily aligned with your and my market moves.

Airdrop season also feels similar—when the task platforms ramp up anti-witching measures, the points system makes earning tokens feel like clocking in at work, and pretty data doesn’t necessarily mean there’s “new money.” Anyway, I prefer to stay honest and not hold full positions; I take my time with what I understand, and for what I don’t, I’ll just listen to the vinyl after flipping this side.