The prediction has changed again.

The Strait of Hormuz is closed again, and any passage by ships is prohibited.

Bitcoin and Ethereum are also trading over the weekend. Currently, Bitcoin is down about 1.1%, and Ethereum is down about 2.5%.

On Friday afternoon, I reminded myself of the plan to go long on gold after a breakout. By the time the US market opened in the evening, it only made a token push upward, but since it didn’t reach a new high, it just moved sideways. At that time, Bitcoin and the US stock market were both rising, so something felt off to me. On the chart, in the 4H timeframe, every time it breaks the previous high, it quickly comes back down. After considering everything, I decided to close the gold long positions.

If there’s no bigger positive news by Monday’s open, gold will open lower on Monday, while oil will open higher. But if you still have gold long positions, don’t panic. Refer to this week’s Monday’s price action:

This Monday, gold opened lower and then rose, while oil opened higher and then fell. So, it comes down to your gold cost basis and whether your position can withstand Monday’s lower open. Gold’s broader direction is still consolidation. But this judgment isn’t based on the idea that your long positions will keep making big profits—the subsequent movement may not be exactly the same as what happened on Monday and Tuesday.

I can’t say for sure how it will affect the stock market, but my intuition is that the market is currently pricing in a complete ceasefire. Some back-and-forth in between is actually a good thing; it could mean it may rise more. If there really is a complete ceasefire, it could instead lead to good news triggering outflows, which would be bearish. That’s my guess.