On April 17th, Iran announced the resumption of commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz during the 10-day ceasefire window with the United States, temporarily easing macro risk sentiment, and BTC subsequently rebounded by about 2.77%.

On the surface, market sentiment is turning positive, and funds are beginning to bet on further upward movement; but on-chain data reveals a different signal—distribution of holdings and profit-taking status show that selling pressure is gradually accumulating above.
This type of rally driven by macro events often features "sentiment leading, funds lagging," and if the new momentum cannot be sustained, prices are more likely to enter a correction and rebalancing phase.
The key to the current market is not the positive news itself, but whether funds will continue to buy after the good news.
In the short term, be cautious of the classic pattern of "positive news realized → sharp rise and then pullback."
Follow me to see through the surface of sentiment and understand the true fund logic behind the crypto market.