#山寨币强势反弹 At midnight on April 18th, Bitcoin broke through $78,000, reaching a high of $78,316, with a surge of up to 4%. In the past 24 hours, the total contract liquidation across the network was $711 million, including $567 million in short liquidations, with longs winning decisively.

Today, the meme coin RAVE surged again, from $0.2 to a peak of $28.63 today, a 100-fold increase in ten days. In the past two days, old-school meme coins from three or four years ago also started to surge dramatically. The veteran Bitcoin inscription leader ORDI rose from $2.1 on April 13 to $10.7 on April 17, a 5x increase. The once-prominent SATS also nearly doubled in two days, but has now retreated to the prices from a couple of days ago.

The decline of mainstream cryptocurrencies from their highs to now, compared to the estimated bottom of the bear market.
BTC — currently down 41%, with an ultimate bear market decline of 80%-85%.
ETH — currently down 52%, with an ultimate bear market decline of 85%-90%.
BNB — currently down 55%, with an ultimate bear market decline of 90%-95%.
SOL — currently down 71%, with an ultimate bear market decline of 90%-95%.
XRP — currently down 63%, with an ultimate bear market decline of 90%-95%.
TRX — currently down 28%, with an ultimate bear market decline of 90%-95%.
BCH — currently down 34%, with an ultimate bear market decline of 90%-95%.
ADA — currently down 81%, with an ultimate bear market decline of 90%-95%.
DOGE — currently down 87%, with an ultimate bear market decline of 95%-99%.
SHIB — currently down 86%, with an ultimate bear market decline of 95%-99%.
FLOKI — currently down 91%, with an ultimate bear market decline of 95%-99%.
PEPE — currently down 86%, with an ultimate bear market decline of 95%-99%.
HIPPO — currently down 99%, with an ultimate bear market decline of 95%-99%.
BONK — currently down 90%, with an ultimate bear market decline of 95%-99%.
MOODENG — currently down 91%, with an ultimate bear market decline of 95%-99%.
LUNA — currently down 96%, with an ultimate bear market decline of 95%-99%.
ONDO — currently down 87%, with an ultimate bear market decline of 95%-99%.
Surprisingly, TRX, which has fallen to this point, is actually the most resilient among mainstream coins.
During the slight rebound in Bitcoin over the past few days, the altcoin season experienced rare intense volatility. Tokens with a circulating market cap under $11.6k have tripled, five times, and some nearly ten times in just a few days. Without major breakthroughs, ecosystem developments, or new institutional entry, prices were simply driven upward.

From December 2024 to April 2026, the total market cap of altcoins excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum shrank from a peak of about $1.16 trillion to around $700 billion, nearly a 40% evaporation. When market cap shrinks to sufficiently low levels, the game rules change: prices are no longer determined by market consensus but by who holds enough chips. This is a rebound caused by oversold conditions, not a signal of a bull market.
BSC chain’s weekly DEX trading volume increased by 97% year-over-year, the altcoin season index is 34/100, and Bitcoin dominance is 58.5%. All three numbers can be true simultaneously but also contradict each other.
On-chain activity is indeed heating up, but the latter two numbers tell you that the market is still in the “Bitcoin season”: less than half of the mainstream altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin, and the dominant capital is highly concentrated in Bitcoin, far from spreading outward. However, all three numbers point to the same reality: the crypto market’s existing funds are accelerating in circulation, not new money entering.
The hype is real, but hype does not equal a bull market. Those rushing to catch this rebound will likely suffer heavy losses in the next two months, especially those trying to catch the last wave of meme coins. Currently, memes are creating a bull market because these surging memes have previously fallen by dozens or hundreds of times; now, a 10x rise triggers FOMO. As I always say, where memes rise, they will fall back to.
Finally, returning to the essence of investing in cryptocurrencies: buy when no one cares, sell when everyone is loud. When on-chain indicators collectively fail and market narratives are highly divided and uncertain, it’s often the time to be cautious and look for opportunities. When cryptocurrencies become street talk and extreme greed spreads, it may indicate that the cycle is nearing its peak. In this early bear market, maintaining respect for the market and understanding the underlying logic behind indicators is more important than blindly trusting any single metric.