These days, I'm tired of hearing the same old story: "Stablecoin supply increases = capital entering the market = imminent surge." I'm really starting to get bored with it. An increase in supply could mean new coins being minted and waiting to be used, or it could just be a change in packaging, sitting on the books, which is quite different from genuine buying pressure. ETF money is even more patient; many are off-chain allocation strategies, going through processes, hedging, and not necessarily directly pushing onto the chain to drive prices up. To be honest, the correlation looks similar, but don't rush to jump to conclusions about causality.

By the way, I saw some mainstream public chain upgrades and people guessing whether the ecosystem will migrate afterward. I prefer to first look for anomalies on the chain: congestion on cross-chain bridges, CEX deposit and withdrawal issues, or unexplained chain reorganizations... These small incidents are the most genuine short-term stress tests. Anyway, I now prefer to take it slow, clarify the cause and effect before taking action.