These days, I see a bunch of people lumping together stablecoin supply, ETF capital flows, and off-exchange funds into one interpretation, while also bringing in U.S. stock market risk appetite to explain crypto price movements... Frankly, high correlation doesn't mean there's a causal chain; often it's just that everyone is doing the same thing at the same time: reallocating positions, hedging risks, or simply following the crowd emotionally.

What I care more about is where the money actually ends up after coming in: is it staying in exchanges earning interest, or going on-chain for lending/LP, or getting trapped by high-APR "rewards" and unable to exit? Anyway, I now tend to question the conclusion that "supply increase = takeoff," preferring to slow down, carefully calculate the real annualized returns, exit costs, and worst-case scenarios. Avoiding a pitfall is more comfortable than catching every wave of volatility.