Hong Kong Stock Market Indicator | Hang Seng Index shrinks in volume and closes lower, with bears adding positions again; ceasefire expectations fluctuate, affecting market confidence

Cailian Press, April 2 (Editor: Feng Yi) Today, the three major Hong Kong stock indices declined again, with the Middle East ceasefire expectations repeatedly amplifying short-term market volatility. At the close, the Hang Seng Index fell 0.7%, narrowly holding above 25,000 points, while the State-owned Enterprise Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index declined by 0.56% and 1.63%, respectively.

【Geopolitical Risks Rekindled, Hang Seng Shrinks in Volume and Closes Lower, Short Sellers Increase Positions Again】

In the market, large tech stocks performed collectively weakly today, with Xiaomi down 3.56%, Alibaba down 3.4%, Meituan down 2%, and Tencent down 1.5%.

In other sectors, growth concepts such as semiconductors and consumer electronics generally declined, while sectors like gold, photovoltaics, real estate, and insurance all fell.

Among the rising sectors, resource stocks such as oil, coal, and non-ferrous metals surged again, and industries like automobiles and pork, which benefit from favorable industry policies, also strengthened.

Overall, Hong Kong stocks’ short-term market again受到 geopolitical risks影响。Today, the Hang Seng Index shrank in volume and closed lower, narrowly holding above 25,000 points, with a total daily turnover of HKD 243.63B.

On the short-selling front, the total short-selling amount was HKD 34.04B, accounting for 13.97% of the Hang Seng Index’s turnover, indicating an increase in short positions.

Xiaomi Group-W, Alibaba-W, and Tencent Holdings had the top three short-selling amounts, at HKD 2.65B, HKD 1.8B, and HKD 1.08B, respectively.

【Trump’s “Heavy Blow” to Market Ceasefire Expectations, Bullish Confidence Wanes】

Market-wise, due to Trump’s tough stance of “striking hard” at ceasefire hopes, his unpredictable statements have also weakened market bullish confidence. Today, major sectors showed mixed gains and losses, reflecting a structural market pattern.

Among them, energy stocks such as oil and coal became active again. Additionally, high-dividend sectors and cryptocurrency concepts also became safe-haven options for funds.

In the short term, the current geopolitical situation is at a critical juncture, with funds highly sensitive to it. Before the situation clarifies, the US dollar and oil prices may fluctuate at high levels, and valuations of growth assets are subject to significant disturbance and rapid rotation. During this period, dividend-low volatility strategies are expected to be relatively stable and have a margin of safety.

It is worth noting that, according to Federal Reserve data, since the US-Iran conflict, the value of central bank-held government bonds in New York has shrunk by USD 82 billion, falling to the lowest level since 2012 at around USD 27 trillion. On a macro level, the global risk-averse sentiment continues to strengthen.

【A-shares Major Indices Fluctuate and Close Lower, Institutions Say Market Stabilization Still Requires Cooling of Conflicts】

In the A-share market, today also saw fluctuations and adjustments, with the ChiNext Index and the STAR Market 50 Index both dropping over 2%. The combined trading volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen was 1.84 trillion yuan, shrinking by 169.5 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. On the market, over 4,300 stocks declined, with geopolitical risks again impacting the market.

Looking ahead, China Merchants Securities International stated that if conflicts do not escalate further within April, the previously accumulated risk premiums are expected to gradually be released, providing room for valuation repair. Additionally, the technical pressures from annual reports and unlockings may gradually clear in April, allowing Hong Kong stocks to transition from high-volatility oscillations to a phase of bottoming and stabilization.

In terms of allocation, if Middle East geopolitical uncertainties persist, high oil prices will continue to provide direct profit support for China’s energy sector. Meanwhile, gold benefits from global risk aversion and US dollar credit pressure, maintaining a strategic high allocation. If geopolitical uncertainties rapidly subside, it is recommended to reduce positions in energy stocks at high levels and realize premiums.

(Cailian Press, Feng Yi)