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April 18 Bitcoin Analysis
April 18 Early Morning: Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz would be open during the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, and US-Iran negotiations are coming up over the weekend; geopolitical risk has dropped sharply; crude oil has crashed, inflation expectations have cooled, and the 10-year US Treasury yield has fallen to 4.24%, while the US Dollar Index has weakened (98.1), directly benefiting non-US risk assets like BTC / gold
There are still variables in US-Iran negotiations: Trump said, “the blockade will continue until an agreement is reached,” the opening of the Strait of Hormuz is temporary and conditional; if talks break down, geopolitical risk will quickly rebound, and BTC is prone to spike then pull back
Buy the dip: after a pullback, 76,500–76,800 stabilizes; stop loss 76,200; target 77,800→78,200
Sell lightly near the top: the rebound faces resistance at 77,800–78,000; stop loss 78,300; target 77,000→76,500
The market is driven by the easing tone + rate-cut expectations to break 76,200 and turn stronger, but with overbought conditions + negotiation uncertainty, first watch for range-bound movement between 76,500–78,000; prioritize buying dips on pullbacks, and stay alert for a spike then pullback.$BTC