Today I saw someone use a “coincidental transfer” as evidence again, and it made me laugh. Honestly, on-chain there just aren’t that many coincidences—more often, it’s that the path wasn’t properly broken down. Usually, I first trace back two or three hops from the receiving address: Is it the same consolidation of funds? Did it pass through a router/aggregator in the middle? Is there a fixed time pattern for batch sending? Do the Gas settings/behavior look like they were run by a script? Then I check whether the same funding source repeatedly feeds the address. The tagging tools are also being criticized for being laggy, which is normal—some people deliberately go through a few layers of “washing hands” to lead you down the wrong path. Later, I found the easiest and most reliable approach is still to watch the mempool: same block, same nonce, same builder preferences, and repeated calldata—these are far more dependable than simply adding tags. Anyway, don’t jump to conclusions just because you see a transfer; first understand the path before criticizing.

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