#Gate13周年

Has the halving cycle bull market pattern become invalid?

In April 2024, Bitcoin completed its fourth block reward halving. According to historical patterns, a parabolic bull market should follow 12 to 18 months afterward. By April 2026, over half of the halving cycle has passed, and Bitcoin’s price has risen only about 15% since the halving. This contrasts sharply with past cycles where the 2012 halving saw gains over 5000%, and the 2016 halving led to nearly $20k all-time high. Is the four-year halving cycle bull market rule truly failing?

🙋How big is the gap between the historical gains and the current half-cycle?

🚩The answer is simple: the gap is enormous.

We compare this halving cycle with the previous three cycles vertically:

Halving Cycle | Price at Halving | Gain Past Halfway
---|---|---
2012 | About $12 | Over 5000%
2016 | About $650 | Over 300%
2020 | About $8,600 | Over 200%
2024 | About $64,000 | About 15%

Overall, this cycle shows typical slow bull characteristics, with moderate growth and reduced volatility, starkly contrasting with the explosive, frenzy-like rallies of previous cycles.

🙋Why is this cycle different? - Institutional entry rewrites market fundamentals

This time, only a 15% increase behind the halving is driven by the old narrative of halving itself giving way to institutional capital.

📌Bitcoin ETF

After the launch of the US spot Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, net inflows temporarily reached about $56 billion. However, from 2025 to early 2026, capital flows experienced sharp fluctuations — in 2025, Bitcoin ETF saw about $9 billion in large-scale outflows, though recently it recovered about $3 billion, with an overall net outflow exceeding $6 billion. In Q1 2026, Bitcoin ETFs had a total net outflow of about $500 million. The market is not one-sided buying; institutional sentiment is also fluctuating.

📌Continuous institutional accumulation

Another force is accumulating against the trend. Strategy invested about $1 billion in a week from April 6 to 12, buying 13,927 Bitcoins at an average price of about $71,902. As of April 13, Strategy’s total holdings reached 780,897 BTC, accounting for about 3.7% of circulating supply, with a total cost of approximately $59.02 billion.

📊Bull market rules may have just changed “the script”

The fact that Bitcoin’s halving cycle is over halfway through and the current 15% increase does not mean the bull market has failed.

In our view, Bitcoin’s driving forces have shifted from “halving-driven” to a dual engine of “macro policies + institutional funds.” The mark of a maturing asset is precisely moving away from simple, crude patterns. Reduced volatility, converging gains, and weakening cycles are not death signs but signs of rebirth.

Bitcoin’s bull market pattern has not disappeared; it has evolved. And our understanding must keep pace. $BTC $ETH $RAVE