Recently, I came across a few old blockchain games again, and I really have the feeling of "here we go again." When the pool first opened, everyone was happy, with high output and tokens being easily absorbed, but as inflation kicked in, things started to fall apart: no one really wanted to hold the extra tokens generated each day, they just wanted to sell and exchange for other things. Liquidity in the pool was gradually drained, and in the end, it was just a matter of who could run faster. To put it simply, if the game content can't sustain "continuous payroll," then it can only rely on new players to replace old players; if that doesn't work, it collapses.

These days, I keep seeing people linking ETF capital flows with the risk appetite of the US stock market to explain crypto price movements. I also glance at it, but blockchain games are more like a micro-economy. Whether the external environment is turbulent or not is just an accelerator; the core principle remains the same: when output exceeds consumption, debt will eventually need to be repaid. Right now, I’m just holding a low position, and if I see the output curve not converging, I’ll just leave it at that. For now, that’s how it is.