Lately, I've been a bit obsessed with options, but the more I look, the more I realize the core question is: who is the time value really eating? Buyers wake up every day feeling like a debt collector is ringing their alarm, blood draining even when the market is flat; sellers, on the surface, are collecting rent, but in reality, they’re stuffing tail risk into a drawer, invisible most of the time, but when the moment hits, they can spit out everything they’ve collected... Basically, it’s using "time" to exchange for "probability."

What I care more about now is whether I’m betting on the direction or on the sudden increase in volatility. Many people look at on-chain data tool tags, thinking that if a certain address is adding positions, they should follow along, but recently this approach has been criticized for being lagging or potentially misleading, which isn’t without reason. When information is a half beat behind, the buyer’s small amount of time value can’t hold up. Anyway, I’d rather do less and pay more, at least knowing what I’m paying for.