I almost copied the wrong treasury address just now. I even clicked confirm on the transfer page before I noticed I was missing one digit at the end. My palms started sweating right away… If someone like me—with this kind of reverse indicator—actually makes a transfer mistake, I guess it would end up becoming an on-chain case study.

And because of this near miss, I went back to look into the project’s treasury spending. To be frank, I don’t really trust those “milestone” slide decks in the PPT. Instead, I pay more attention to the fine-grained ledger: whether the money is really going to slow work like development, security audits, and operations, or whether they just fob it off every so often with a “collaboration promotion.” Recently, everyone has been interpreting big on-chain transfers and sudden changes in exchange hot/cold wallets as “smart money.” I’ll glance at it too, but I don’t dare to treat it as a signal… If I take it too seriously, I’m liable to get corrected.

Anyway, I don’t dare to go all-in. Only when I see the treasury is transparent and spending has a steady rhythm do I dare to follow along in small amounts and keep holding; for the kind that gets spent fast and messily, I just treat it as practice for my risk control. That’s it for now.