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Just saw crypto bettors are seriously wagering on Nikki Haley's odds of dropping out before South Carolina. The betting market on Polymarket has 62k in play right now, and it's leaning toward her staying in the race at 59 cents vs 43 cents for an early exit. So basically like 42% chance she quits before Feb 24? Wild.
Trump's already crushing it - took Iowa with 51% and New Hampshire with 54%, securing 20 and 12 delegates respectively. Meanwhile Haley got 19.1% in Iowa and 43.3% in New Hampshire. Everyone else basically folded after Iowa, but Haley keeps saying the race is far from over. Even some billionaire donor is telling her to walk away though, saying it'd be political suicide if she can't win her own state.
The crazy part is people are actually betting serious money on this. Iowa caucus bets hit over 4 million, New Hampshire passed 5 million, and now 2024 election betting is the biggest market on Polymarket - bigger than the Bitcoin ETF approval bets that used to dominate. You really can't make this up. What do you think Haley's actual odds are of making it past South Carolina?