Just caught something interesting - Wall Street's being pretty bullish on stocks for the rest of this year. The median forecast from 20 major analysts is looking for the S&P 500 to hit around 7,650 by year-end, which would be roughly a 10% move from current levels.

What's got them excited? Basically, companies are accelerating earnings growth, we're seeing AI spending momentum, and there's talk of interest rate cuts coming. If this plays out, the full-year return could hit close to 12%, which would absolutely destroy the long-term average stock market return over 30 years - that's been sitting at just 8.1% annually historically.

The thing is, when you look back at the average stock market return over 30 years, it's pretty modest compared to what analysts are projecting. Over the last decade, the S&P 500 actually returned 13.6% annually, so the current bullish thesis isn't completely out of left field. Still, worth noting that Wall Street's year-end targets have a spotty track record - they missed by 5% last year and 25% the year before.

Top holdings are still dominated by the mega-cap tech crowd. Nvidia's at 7.9% of the index, followed by Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon. The average stock market return over 30 years tells you this index is built for the long haul, but if earnings accelerate like Wall Street expects, we could see some real moves in the next few months. Just something I've been watching.