Lately I've been looking at address tagging, clustering, and fund flows, and the more I look, the more nervous I get... To put it simply, address profiling should only be considered as a "reference," not an "ID card." The same person might split into a dozen accounts, move funds back and forth between exchange hot and cold wallets, or circle around on bridges; on the chart, it looks like a big player is entering, but it might just be internal rebalancing. Some clustering groups all interactions with the same contract as one category, so what you think is "smart money" might just be everyone using the same tool.

These days, the narrative around ETF fund flows is again tied to the risk appetite of the US stock market. I also look at it, but don’t overthink it—when the market is acting up, on-chain data is... either like... a smokescreen, able to point in a direction but full of pitfalls in the details. Anyway, I now focus more on transaction structure and drawdowns when adjusting market parameters; on-chain charts are mostly just reminders not to get too caught up.