"Rally catches everyone off guard." What Bitcoin needs to grow to $85 thousand.

On April 17, Bitcoin's price rose above $76,500, gaining over 15% from April lows and reaching a two-month high. In the past few hours, the increase was about 2%.

The positive momentum is accompanied by news that Tehran has opened the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial ships until the end of the ceasefire period, as Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote. Bitcoin is not the only asset growing on April 17; major US stock indices and gold also showed comparable growth to Bitcoin.

However, traders continue to bet on the asset's price decline, which could create additional momentum for further growth, Bloomberg reports, citing experts.

Traders are actively increasing short positions (on), where they use borrowed funds to support trading positions, says K33 research head Vetle Lunde. He clarified that further growth in Bitcoin's price could lead to a so-called short squeeze — a mass closing of short positions amid rising losses, which will push the price even higher.

Playing on the decline of the price (short position, short) involves selling an asset that the trader does not own and borrows from the exchange. This is done with the aim of buying it back cheaper when the price falls, returning it to the exchange at the original price, and thus profiting from the difference between the purchase and sale prices.

A significant sharp increase in price often triggers a situation called a "short squeeze," when a rapid rise forces traders to close their short positions and buy back the asset to return it to the exchange before liquidation occurs. This, in turn, provokes an even greater increase in its price.

Kaiko analyst Laurence Fraussen believes that breaking the $76 thousand level will open the way to $85 thousand. He warned that "such a rally is likely to catch many off guard." However, as FalconX broker expert Bohan Jiang noted, there is resistance for the price around the levels of $80 thousand along this path.

But not all traders are solely betting on growth. Bloomberg journalists cited data from the Deribit options exchange, where participants are pricing in the probability of a price decline to levels of $50–60K. For these reasons, Jiang pointed out the $80 thousand mark as a significant resistance. In his view, as the price moves toward this level, options market participants will sell their Bitcoin holdings according to their strategy.