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Just noticed uranium stocks got absolutely hammered today and finally figured out why. DeepSeek, this Chinese AI startup, dropped a model that apparently took only $6 million and two months to build, yet it's somehow competing with ChatGPT. The market's freaking out because if AI doesn't need as many chips as we thought, then we don't need all that nuclear power everyone was hyping up for data centers.
Cameco, Denison Mines, and Uranium Energy all tanked hard - we're talking 9% to 13% drops by mid-morning. But here's the thing, uranium prices were already sliding before this news hit. From a peak last February, the price had already fallen about 34% down to under $70 per pound. There was a brief bounce in early January toward $75, but that didn't stick.
Then Cameco threw more fuel on the fire this morning by announcing their Kazakhstan joint venture is ramping uranium production back up after a three-week pause. So now you've got prices already heading lower and more supply coming online at the same time. Not exactly the recipe for a recovery.
That said, I'm not totally convinced the sky is falling here. DeepSeek's been running for a month already but we only just heard about it, so nobody really knows how much power it actually needs. Plus if cheaper AI becomes popular, won't people just use it more? That could end up burning tons of electricity anyway. The real question is whether uranium sticks around the $60 break-even point that miners need to justify new production. If it does, we're probably looking at prices bouncing between demand pulling up and new supply pushing down. Either way, at current levels, Denison and Uranium Energy have been losing money three quarters straight, so I'm not seeing a compelling reason to jump in just yet.