Recently, I've seen a bunch of people watching whale addresses again, taking screenshots and ready to copy their trades. To put it simply, first figure out whether they are building a position or hedging: a large transfer to an exchange could be for selling, or it could be using spot holdings as collateral to open a reverse position, or even just moving funds between wallets as part of the process. If you only focus on on-chain activity, it's easy to mistake "risk management" for "signals."

These days, ETF capital flows and U.S. stock market risk appetite are being analyzed together, sounding like the truth, but actually more like weather forecasts or lottery results—something to reference but not to steer your decisions. My usual approach is: I prefer to earn a little less than to risk everything. I split my positions and keep some bullets ready. When I see suspicious whale activity, I wait for confirmation instead of jumping in full position out of excitement.