The Strait of Hormuz is "fully open," and oil prices have dropped over 9% in a single day.

This is not a normal correction; it’s a systematic elimination of geopolitical risk premiums.

The Strait of Hormuz carries about 20% of the world's oil transportation and is the throat of the Persian Gulf. When the strait is closed, oil prices jump, reflecting market fear of "supply disruptions." Now Iran says it is fully open, and Trump personally confirmed this via tweet—

Oil prices wiped out this week’s gains in a single day, showing how quickly the "risk discount" is disappearing.

Even more significant is this: the U.S. is considering unfreezing about $200 billion of Iranian assets in exchange for concessions on nuclear issues.

Remember what was said a few days ago? Iran had used BTC to collect tolls for passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Looking back now, that seems more like a bargaining chip—Iran used "the strait" as leverage to demand negotiations with the U.S.

Unfreezing $200 billion + restoring passage + restarting nuclear negotiations—

This is a combined strategy. The Trump administration is offering carrots for concessions rather than continuing pressure.

The impact chain on the crypto market:

Oil prices plummet → inflation expectations decline → Fed rate cut expectations rise → liquidity expectations improve → risk assets benefit

Geopolitical risk cools → safe-haven demand decreases → gold comes under pressure → BTC, as a risk asset, instead benefits

But at the same time, falling oil prices weaken the narrative of "cryptocurrency as an anti-inflation tool."

So, BTC’s next move depends on whether the market is trading "expectations of loose liquidity" or "declining risk appetite."

If weekend negotiations bring good news, the first wave of next week’s opening may still follow a "risk-on" logic.

The Strait of Hormuz has shifted from a "powder keg" to a "waterway"—the script of geopolitical drama changes far faster than market expectations. #美伊局势和谈与增兵博弈