#XBR【Breaking News: Iran Opens the Strait of Hormuz, International Oil Prices Plunge More Than 10% in a Single Day】

Xinhua News Agency, Washington, April 17 — U.S. President Trump announced on social media on the evening of the 17th that Iran has fully opened the Strait of Hormuz, allowing for complete passage. Impacted by this major positive development, international crude oil prices saw a cliff-like decline. As of 21:23 Beijing time, the decline in WTI U.S. crude oil futures widened to 10.14%, to $85.09 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures fell below the $90 mark, to $89.99 per barrel.

Earlier, when Trump announced on April 12 that the U.S. military would blockade the Strait of Hormuz, both oil benchmarks surged by more than 7% in a single day, with both rising above the $100 mark. At present, both the U.S. and Iran have been releasing positive signals for negotiations. Trump said that this weekend there may be face-to-face talks with Iran, with the expectation of reaching a permanent ceasefire agreement.

April 17 latest prices and subsequent trend

Real-time prices (as of 21:23)

- WTI U.S. crude oil: $85.09 per barrel (down 10.14% today)
​
- Brent crude oil: $89.99 per barrel (down 9.46% today)

Brief analysis of subsequent trend

- Short term (1-2 weeks): The geopolitical risk premium is quickly fading, and oil prices are likely to trade in a volatile range of $80-$95 per barrel. If the U.S.-Iran negotiations this weekend achieve substantive progress, Brent crude may further test around $85; if negotiations break down or there are signs of the strait being blocked again, oil prices will quickly rebound to above $95.
​
- Medium term (the second half of the year): The global crude oil supply remains in a loose pattern (U.S. shale oil with high output, OPEC+ potential for increased production). Combined with weak demand, the oil price center will slowly move down to $80-$90 per barrel.
​
- Key variables: the final outcome of U.S.-Iran negotiations, the speed of restoring navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, and adjustments to OPEC+ production cut policies. #山寨币强势反弹