Recently, I've seen everyone conclude that "money is coming in" just by looking at charts of stablecoin supply, ETF inflows, and so on. I always feel that's a bit lazy. An increase in supply might just be OTC transfers, market-making rebalancing, or even exchange reserves—it's not necessarily new buying power; the same goes for ETFs. Inflows don't mean the spot market is immediately swept clean. The hedging and pacing involved are quite complex. Honestly, the correlation looks comfortable, but don't rush to assume causality.

These days, AI agents and automated trading are being hyped up again, but I'm more concerned about: as on-chain interactions increase, who is seriously scrutinizing the security of permissions, signatures, and contract calls? In extreme scenarios, issues never stem from "misreading the trend," but from a chain of failures—stuck points, rollbacks, liquidations. Anyway, I now prefer to have fewer assumptions and more contingency plans—survive first, then consider the rest.