Someone asked me recently about the loud expectations of rate cuts and how to position oneself in relation to macro trends. To be honest, I don’t really try to predict exactly what will happen at each meeting; I focus more on whether people are willing to take risks. When interest rates go down and money becomes less expensive, risk appetite tends to increase, and high-volatility assets like cryptocurrencies will attract more attention; conversely, when liquidity tightens, the first to be cut are often these assets.

As for the recent discussion about the “U.S. dollar index and risk assets moving up and down together,” my understanding is that we shouldn’t treat correlation as an iron law. When sentiment and positions are squeezed together, everything can move in unison. My approach is pretty simple: when macro uncertainty rises, I reduce leverage first and keep some bullets; on-chain and contract layers, I stick to my usual habits—check permissions, whether parameters can be changed at will, and if there are any strange backdoor switches… Once these red lines are crossed, I won’t touch macro even if it looks good.