These days, I've been watching interest rates and risk appetite again, and I feel their way of transmitting to crypto positions is quite straightforward: when interest rates are high, people are more willing to hold onto "certain interest," and those uncertain stories get discounted; once the market starts to think "maybe it's easing," the mood warms up like tea, hands get itchy, and positions unconsciously increase. To put it simply, it's not that I'm smarter, but the environment pushes you to become more aggressive or more conservative.

Airdrop season also follows this logic: point system + anti-witching, making farming as competitive as clocking in at work, everyone chasing small gains of "certainty," but the risk appetite ends up being sliced into even smaller pieces... I now try to treat my positions like a cup lid, not tightening too much when excited, leaving some breathing room. When I feel like rushing in, I first take a screenshot (those who understand will understand), and wait ten minutes before deciding whether to act.