Market Analysis 2026.04.17

Today, an overview of BTC's overall trend and current movement.

1. Bull-Bear Pattern Judgment

Figure 1 uses the low point of 15,400 and the high point of 126,000 as benchmarks. The boxed area in the figure can be seen as the dividing line between bull and bear markets—if three consecutive weekly candlesticks close above this area, it can be preliminarily judged that the bear market has ended.

Personal opinion: The probability that the February 2026 low of 60k becomes the bottom of the bear market is relatively low; the current trend starting from 60k points is more inclined to be a rebound rally.

2. Current Structural Deduction

In Figure 2, the red and blue boxes are drawn using the high points of 126,000 and 97,900, and the low point of 60k, forming two key resistance zones where the blue and red boxes intersect.

If the rebound level does not expand further, a strong decline must occur by this week at the latest next week. The market allows for new highs (breaking through 76,000), but after reaching new highs, a quick pullback is needed, rather than the current sideways consolidation at high levels.

3. Two Path Hypotheses

• If the sideways consolidation at high levels continues: it may evolve into the red path in Figure 2, meaning the recent decline is only a correction at the same level targeting 65,000–76,000. After ending, there could still be an attempt to attack the same level, testing the red resistance zone, and if it fails to break through, a larger decline will then begin.

• If a rapid decline occurs: the current area may have already formed the end of a rebound structure.

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Core Observation: The rhythm and strength of the next 1-2 weeks will determine whether the rebound continues or if it directly transitions into a downward phase. #btc $BTC