BIT Research: Five Major Signals Light Up Simultaneously, Has the Bitcoin Bear Market Ended?

The current market is at a critical turning point. Multiple independent technical indicators are gradually pointing to the same conclusion: the Bitcoin bear market that began in October 2025 may be nearing its end, or even already over. Unlike the prolonged and repeatedly bottomed-out bear market of 2022, this cycle has shown clear structural changes. The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the phased easing of regulatory uncertainties have created an environment lacking in “passive excessive sell-offs” during price declines. At the same time, historical experience suggests that Bitcoin rarely enters a one-sided rally without experiencing volatility; currently, it is more likely in a “consolidation phase after bottom confirmation.”

In this context, relying on a single indicator has limited significance, but when multiple signals begin to appear simultaneously, the conclusion they point to is becoming clearer: the market is transitioning from a downtrend toward a confirmed turning point.

Technical signals are appearing collectively: from bottom formations to trend recovery

From a technical perspective, the most core change in this market cycle is “signal resonance.” First, the weekly stochastic indicator has risen back above 20, a pattern that typically appears after the worst phase of the market, often corresponding to the formation of a bottom rather than continued decline. Meanwhile, new trend signals have re-emerged, triggered again after two previous false signals, significantly increasing their reference value.

Second, Bitcoin’s price is gradually approaching the 21-week moving average (around $77,592), a key reference line long regarded as distinguishing bull and bear cycles. Currently, the price is oscillating near $75,000; a move back above this range is likely just a matter of time. Once broken and stabilized, it will constitute a clear trend confirmation signal.

Additionally, the monthly RSI also has the potential to return above the moving average. Historically, this signal has often appeared near the bottom of bear markets. If it occurs again this cycle, it will further reinforce the judgment that the bottom has been completed. Overall, these indicators alone have limited significance, but when they appear together within the same timeframe, the market’s state has shifted from “continuing downtrend” to “gradually establishing a bottom structure.”

Key price range confirmation: from oscillation recovery to upward preparation

Beyond technical indicators, the price itself remains the most critical variable for validation. Currently, the market is testing the key zone between $66,000 and $73,000. The high of approximately $73,084 in March 2024 has formed a mid-term top structure. If the price can effectively break through and hold above this zone, it will mean that the previous downtrend has been substantively reversed.

Structurally, this cycle’s pattern bears some similarity to that of a year ago: the market quickly declined under external shocks, then entered a narrow oscillation, and finally completed a trend shift through an upward breakout. Currently, the price has begun testing the upper boundary of this range; if this momentum continues, short-term targets of $88,000 or even higher are not unreasonable. Meanwhile, the support level at $64,972 has become an important support zone at this stage. As long as the price remains above this level, the overall trend will gradually shift from neutral to bullish. Therefore, rather than judging whether the market has “already entered a bull market,” a more critical question is: can the price break through the range to confirm the trend reversal?

At present, five signals are gradually pointing in the same direction: weekly stochastic turning strong, trend signals reappearing, price approaching the 21-week moving average, monthly RSI showing potential confirmation, and the previous downtrend being effectively broken. A single signal alone is insufficient to draw a conclusion, but when these signals appear together within the same phase, the confidence in the conclusion is significantly enhanced. Overall, the bear market starting in October 2025 may already be nearing its end.

For the market, the focus is also shifting: the question is no longer whether Bitcoin will continue to recover, but how fast and how far the upward movement will be once the trend truly shifts. In this process, breaking through key price zones and changes in liquidity environment will become the most critical variables to observe in the next phase.

Some of the above viewpoints are from BIT on Target. Contact us to obtain the full BIT on Target report.

Disclaimer: The market carries risks; investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading digital assets can involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided herein.