Bitcoin overall shows a pattern of rising but facing resistance today. After rebounding from the Asian session low of 73,281, the price repeatedly attempted to push above 75,500 but encountered strong selling pressure each time. Currently, it hovers around 75,700, unable to effectively break through the key resistance zone at 76,000. Ethereum's movement is highly correlated with Bitcoin, rebounding from 2,291 to around 2,367 before facing resistance and pulling back. It is now consolidating between 2,310 and 2,330, with upward momentum clearly weakening. Although there is some correlation in the market, the upward continuation is significantly lacking, and market sentiment has shifted from early probing to cautious waiting.

Technical and on-chain data reinforce the bearish logic: Derivatives market funding rates have been negative for 46 consecutive days, indicating crowded short positions reaching the highest levels of the year. Glassnode monitoring shows that whale addresses have placed over $120 million in sell orders above 75,800, forming a strong resistance barrier. On the daily chart, the price has closed with long upper shadows for three consecutive days below 76,000, forming a classic "shooting star" pattern. This is accompanied by a stepwise decrease in volume (more than 30% lower than previous highs), indicating exhausted bullish reversal attempts. Although the moving averages are still in a bullish alignment, the price is constrained by the upper Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 76,200, with the MACD histogram shrinking and showing bearish divergence signals. The trend has shifted from oscillating upward to stagnating at high levels. The four-hour chart shows repeated failures to test the upper boundary of the rising channel (75,600–76,000). RSI forms a double top divergence around 55, while the KDJ indicator has a death cross pointing downward, indicating orderly accumulation of bearish momentum. The current market rhythm suggests that short-term rebounds are not trend reversals but a trap driven by bears to shake out longs, aiming to accumulate energy for subsequent declines. Today's trading strategy should focus on shorting on rebounds.

Specific trading suggestions: Watch the resistance at 76,500–77,300 and 78,500–79,300 zones. If these resistances hold without breaking, consider going short at high points, targeting a downward move of 500–6000 points.