Been looking into the tin market lately and there's some interesting supply dynamics playing out. China remains the largest producer of tin in world with about 68,000 metric tons annually, though their output has been gradually declining. But what's really reshaping prices is what's happening elsewhere.

Myanmar actually surged past Indonesia last year to become the second largest producer of tin in world with 54,000 MT, jumping up from 47,000 MT the year before. The problem is their Wa state declared a mining suspension starting August 2023, and as of mid-2024 operations at major mines like Man Maw were still halted pending industry audits. This supply crunch has been pushing prices around all year.

Indonesia dropped to third place with 52,000 MT, down significantly from their 70,000 MT the prior year. Meanwhile Peru, Congo, Brazil and Bolivia are all contributing smaller volumes. What caught my attention is that analysts were forecasting tin could hit $45,000 per metric ton by 2033 if demand keeps accelerating from EVs, solar panels, and semiconductor production.

The largest producer of tin in world (China) is also caught up in US trade tensions, with speculation that tin might get added to export restrictions soon. So you've got supply constraints from Myanmar and Indonesia, geopolitical headwinds from China, and surging demand from green tech all colliding at once. Prices hit $35,575 per ton in April 2024 but pulled back to around $28,000 by year-end. Either way, the commodity looks structurally tight going forward.