Price tracing of one jin of pork: the entire chain "continues to decline," with upstream farmers claiming a pig loses four to five hundred yuan | Dayu Finance

Ask AI · Why has this round of the pig cycle caused prices to fall beyond previous expectations?

“Pig meat is really cheap now, you can buy a jin of pork belly for less than 10 yuan.”

Since the beginning of spring 2026, pork prices have experienced a rare continuous decline. The price of live pigs at slaughter has once fallen below 10 yuan per kilogram, equivalent to about 5 yuan per jin, hitting a nearly 7-year low. Retail prices at the end have also decreased accordingly, with many supermarkets and farmers’ markets lowering pork prices by about 5 yuan per jin compared to before the Spring Festival.

Recently, New Yellow River Big Fish Finance reporters traced and investigated, discovering that the price of pork from farm to table has been “falling nonstop.” Behind consumers achieving “pork freedom” is the pressure on the entire chain of breeding, slaughtering, and retail, and the industry is experiencing another test of the “pig cycle.”

Sales side:

Pork prices have fallen for seven consecutive weeks, “a new price every day”

The continuous decline in live pig prices is most directly felt by citizens as lower meat prices in supermarkets and farmers’ markets.

Walking into major farmers’ markets and fresh supermarkets in Jinan, signs of “special offer pork” and “discount promotions” are everywhere, very eye-catching. “Loin and hind leg pork are 8.8 yuan per jin, pork belly is 9.8 yuan per jin, they used to sell for 13 yuan, now down by four or five yuan.” Recently, reporters found that prices of both branded and fresh meat stalls have all fallen across the board.

“My family buys fresh pork slaughtered the same day, pork belly sells for only 9 yuan per jin, and if you buy in bulk, you can get even more discounts. Pork ribs are only 6 yuan per jin, cheaper than some fruits.” At a fresh meat shop in Baliqiao Wholesale Market, the owner was slicing meat quickly while introducing to reporters that his pork comes directly from slaughterhouses outside the city, sold on the same day, no overnight storage. Just a few days ago, pork belly could sell for 13 or 14 yuan per jin, but in just a few days, it has dropped below 10 yuan.

The neighboring Yurun counter also shows significant price drops. “Pork belly with or without skin is 13 yuan per jin, usually around 15-16 yuan at this time of year, and at the most expensive, even 17-18 yuan, which is 5 yuan cheaper than the same period last year. The cheapest front leg meat is only a bit over 8 yuan.” The staff said that the main reason for this round of price drops is the continuous decline in pig purchase prices, with wholesale prices at the origin only slightly above 5 yuan per jin.

In large supermarkets like Hualian and Ginza, pork prices have also decreased to varying degrees. In a Hualian supermarket in Xicheng, Jinan, promotional prices for neck and shoulder cuts are 9.9 yuan per jin, and rib racks are 19.9 yuan. Customers often stop to choose. “Now, eating meat is really cheap. A family of four buying two jin of meat costs about twenty yuan,” said Ms. Zhang, a shopper.

A staff member at a cold fresh meat counter in the supermarket told reporters that since the Lantern Festival (15th day of the first lunar month), meat prices have been falling all the way, with daily fluctuations in arrival prices, almost changing every day, with prices dropping about 0.8 yuan per jin. Retail prices can only be adjusted daily accordingly. “In the past, the most expensive pork belly sold for over 20 yuan per jin. In recent years, this year is the lowest price year.” However, she also said that although pork prices have decreased, pork is a fast-moving consumer good, and daily sales have not increased significantly.

Not only in Jinan, but nationwide, according to the latest data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, monitoring results from 500 county markets and collection points across the country in the fourth week of March show that the average national pork price is 21.52 yuan per kilogram, down 2.2% from the previous week and down 17.8% year-on-year. Notably, pork prices in all 30 monitored provinces have fallen, with none rising. This marks the seventh consecutive week of nationwide pork price declines.

Middlemen:

Slaughterhouses set quotas, pig brokers face “two ends of pressure”

A pig moving from farm to table usually passes through multiple links: breeding, slaughtering, wholesale, and retail. After layers of circulation, it finally becomes fresh meat in citizens’ shopping baskets. As the link connecting production and sales, slaughterhouses and wholesale traders are now deeply caught in the dilemma of “pressure from both ends.”

Old Song, a pig broker in Linyi, who switched careers after more than twenty years of pig farming, started specializing in pig intermediary work three or four years ago. But even after a lifetime of experience, he admits he has never seen such a market. The continuous sharp drop in pig prices has made him, as a broker connecting both ends, truly feel the “pressure from both sides.”

“Now upstream pig farms are eager to sell, but downstream slaughterhouses can’t raise prices due to weak terminal consumption and sluggish sales.” Old Song said helplessly that they buy pigs from farms at market prices and deliver to slaughterhouses, but slaughterhouses are not making money themselves, so their days are tough.

“Slaughterhouses rely on volume to make money; only when operating at full capacity do profits become substantial. But now, slaughter volume can’t increase, and after deducting water, electricity, and labor costs, they can barely break even.” Old Song explained that although pig prices are low now, the market trend is hard to predict, and slaughterhouses dare not stockpile and push prices down. They can only adopt a “sell one batch, slaughter one batch” mode, slaughtering and selling as they go.

This is also the reality faced by Mr. Li, the manager of a slaughterhouse. “We now only process about 300 pigs a day; more than that is not allowed, less than that is not good either.” Mr. Li said that currently, the best quality white pork is priced at no more than 12 yuan per kilogram at the factory, and after multiple calculations, this output just covers operating costs like water, electricity, and labor, barely balancing profits and losses.

Additionally, influenced by international situations and other factors, oil prices continue to rise, further increasing transportation costs. “Take the segment from the farm to the slaughterhouse, the impact is very obvious.” Old Song lamented, “Transport costs used to be 8 yuan per kilometer, now it has risen to 10-12 yuan per kilometer, and each trip costs a lot more. This money ultimately comes out of our middle links’ profits.”

Breeding farms:

“Break-even price around 6.5 yuan per jin, losing 400-500 yuan per pig”

The industry’s sharp fluctuations hit the most directly affected part—the upstream of the supply chain. Farmers at the source are the hardest hit and bear the greatest losses in this pig price decline.

“A 250-jin fat pig, including feed, vaccines, labor, and all costs, costs about 1,400 yuan, but now it can only be sold for 900 to 1,000 yuan, losing 400-500 yuan per pig.” Looking at nearly 400 pigs about to be sold in the pen, farmer Mr. Han, who has been contracting mountain pig farming since 2007, said this is the first time he has encountered such a low market in so many years. “Although we operate on an order basis, with customers regularly coming to buy, there’s no worry about sales, but now, selling one pig means losing money.”

He carefully calculated: feed costs like corn and soybean meal account for over 70% of total farming expenses. Just feed for one pig costs over 900 yuan, and the break-even price is about 6.5 yuan per jin. But the current pig slaughter price is only about 4.8 yuan per jin, putting him in a dilemma. “Raising more pigs for one more day means more losses; selling means losing money, and not selling means losing even more.”

Similarly, Mr. Ma, who runs a medium-sized farm in Jinan, is also holding on. “We currently have over 5,000 pigs in stock, and just the daily feed expenses are not small. Plus, labor and disease prevention costs, the pressure is significant.” Mr. Ma said, “In good times, 5,000 pigs in stock was confidence; now it’s a burden. Every extra day of holding means more losses.”

Not only small and medium farms are affected, but large breeding enterprises also face considerable operational pressure. A manager of a large pig breeding base told reporters that their annual stock is 62,500 pigs, with an average of two to three batches slaughtered each month. “Our cost of raising a jin of pig is about 7 yuan, but the current price is less than 5 yuan. Recently, grain and oil prices have continued to rise, and we plan to improve production processes and reduce costs to get through this tough period.”

The reporter learned that even Pig Pioneer, known for its cost control, saw a 13.39% year-on-year decline in net profit in 2025; Wen’s Food’s sales revenue in February 2026 also hit its lowest since 2025.

Furthermore, soaring feed costs this year have further increased the industry’s loss pressure. Data shows that since 2026, corn prices have remained above the same period last year, rising from 2.44 yuan per kilogram in the first week of January to 2.50 yuan in the fourth week of March; soybean meal prices have also fluctuated upward, from 3.31 yuan to 3.46 yuan per kilogram.

Currently, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs have issued early warning signals: pig prices have entered the over-decline first-level warning zone.

Breaking the “pig cycle”:

The government continues to release “bottom-line” signals, and breeders are actively “self-rescuing”

In interviews, New Yellow River Big Fish Finance learned that the pig breeding industry typically experiences a “pig cycle” every four to five years. The traditional cycle generally follows the pattern of “pig price rising – breeders expanding – oversupply – pig price falling – industry reducing production – insufficient supply – pig price rebounding.” However, this year’s cycle seems to have “failed,” with pig prices lingering at low levels far beyond market expectations.

Industry insiders analyze that this round of low pig prices differs significantly from previous pig cycles. On one hand, after the Spring Festival, meat consumption enters a slow season, and pork demand declines. But indicators such as the PSY( sow annual piglet supply) level and the scale of large-scale breeding have all increased markedly, greatly improving overall production efficiency, leading to high output and weak demand. Meanwhile, the proportion of pork in residents’ meat consumption has steadily decreased from 62.1% in 2018 to 57.9% in 2025, further weakening demand-side support for pig prices.

Additionally, industry insiders reveal that in the past, pig farming was mostly done by scattered farmers who would quickly clear out their herds after losses, leading to rapid capacity reduction and quick bottoming of pig prices. Now, leading large-scale enterprises dominate the market, with ample cash flow and strong risk resistance, mainly alleviating capacity reduction through cost reduction and efficiency improvements, slowing the pace of capacity clearing.

To stabilize the pig market, on March 4, the National Development and Reform Commission, together with the Ministry of Finance and other departments, launched the first round of central frozen pork storage for 2026, with a total storage volume of 10k tons.

Policy signals of “bottom support” continue to be released. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in conjunction with the National Development and Reform Commission, has lowered the control target for the number of breeding sows to about 36.5 million and guided enterprises to reasonably reduce annual slaughtering volume, promoting orderly industry capacity recovery.

Under policy guidance, many large pig breeding companies have taken the lead in responding to capacity regulation, actively reducing capacity. Pig Pioneer plans to reduce the number of breeding sows to 3.13 million by the end of January 2026, a reduction of 490k head, a 13.5% decrease; Wen’s Food also announced that the number of breeding sows will be reduced from 1.35 million at the end of 2025 to 1.28 million by the end of February 2026, a 5.2% decrease.

Faced with the prolonged downturn, many small and medium self-breeding pig farms are also starting “self-rescue” measures. Farmer Mr. Han told reporters he plans to gradually sell off his remaining 400-plus piglets and eliminate some low-yield sows to endure the market trough. Another farmer, Mr. Ma, said he will reduce costs and improve efficiency through various means to try to keep his operation going.

Industry experts suggest that, while managing costs and disease prevention, breeders should focus on two key points: first, timely selling to avoid blind stockpiling and secondary fattening; second, eliminating low-yield sows to optimize the herd structure, avoiding blind expansion and speculation, thus smoothly passing through this industry low period.