Haitong Futures: Geopolitical Risks Support Precious Metals to Remain Bullish in the Long Term

The Federal Reserve’s dot plot for interest rate decisions shows that most voters are relatively consistent in their stance, indicating only one rate cut will occur within this year. The limited dollar liquidity experienced in the first three quarters of this year is expected to continue. Currently, geopolitical developments are the biggest factor affecting precious metals markets. Iran has been conducting retaliatory attacks on oil and gas facilities in other Middle Eastern countries following ongoing assassinations of top leaders, leading to capital selling precious metals and shifting toward crude oil amid liquidity constraints. Additionally, the Fed’s confirmation of liquidity restrictions has caused a short-term pullback in precious metals, with a rebound expected after liquidity loosening or a turning point in the conflict. From a medium- to long-term perspective, the main international geopolitical risk narratives remain unchanged, and it is advisable to buy on dips and hold long-term. The expected price ranges for COMEX gold and silver are $4,700–$5,300 and $70–$100, respectively. (Haitong Futures)