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Based on macro, geopolitical, ETF, capital flow, clearing map, and technical levels (75k resistance, 72k support) comprehensive judgment:
1. Most likely scenario (probability ~55%): Sideways upward movement, testing 76k-78,000 USD
Reason: Continuous positive ETF inflows + PPI rate cut expectations + progress in Middle East peace talks → risk appetite recovery. After breaking through 75k USD, short positions above will accelerate the upward trend. Target: retest 76k within a week (PPI rebound high point), medium-term outlook for 80k+. Conditions: oil prices remain declining, no new geopolitical black swan events.
2. Less likely scenario (probability ~30%): Volatility at high levels between 72,500-76,000 USD
Reason: Uncertainty in geopolitical peace talks + sticky CPI causing cautious Fed stance. Price fluctuates within dense liquidation zones (around 73k) and 75k, awaiting more data next week (employment, FOMC minutes). Suitable for range trading, long positions defended near 73k.
3. Low probability risk scenario (probability ~15%): Rapid decline to test 72k USD support
Reason: Sudden escalation in Middle East (Holmza completely shut down) or macro data unexpectedly rebounds (oil prices surge above 110). If breaking below the dense long position zone at 73k, it will trigger chain liquidations, accelerating downward to 72k. Discipline in stop-loss is most important.