Guotai Junan Futures: The ample PTA supply affects the trend of the April contract, and the medium-term trend remains relatively strong.

Cost and demand game, not chasing highs, more pullbacks, monthly spread of 5-9 below 50 yuan/ton continues to maintain a positive position. Currently, PTA supply is sufficient, with the operating rate rising again to around 82%, and downstream polyester operating rates falling back to 86.9%. The short-term abundant supply issue will affect the April contract and the trend in early April, and this round of price increases may struggle to keep up with the rise in crude oil and naphtha on the cost side. On the spot market, under high prices, sales remain difficult, as many enterprises register delivery warehouse receipts, creating pressure on the April and nearby month contracts. In the medium to long term, considering that domestic and overseas PX supply will significantly tighten starting in April, PTA inventories will enter a phase of accelerated decline. In terms of polyester, the willingness to restock weaving is temporarily insufficient, but demand for some categories’ exports is rapidly increasing, and other categories may experience similar situations in April-May. Regarding PTA’s medium-term trend, we still believe it remains relatively strong, mainly focusing on pullbacks for long positions. (Guotai Junan Futures)