Analyst: Bitcoin funding rates drop to the lowest since 2023, potentially triggering a short squeeze, with BTC expected to rise to $125,000.

Mars Finance News, April 17 — According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin is temporarily priced at $74,700, down 0.4% over 24 hours. News of US-Iran ceasefire negotiations has boosted risk sentiment, with the S&P 500 reaching a record high on Thursday. Trump stated that the prospect of a permanent ceasefire between the US and Iran “looks very optimistic,” claiming that Iran has agreed to relinquish nuclear ambitions, transfer nuclear materials, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though Iran has not yet confirmed these concessions.
Meanwhile, the market is closely watching the structural signals behind Bitcoin’s price movements. ZeroStack CEO Daniel Reis-Faria said, “Such a negative funding rate indicates the market is heavily shorted. If Bitcoin continues to rise under this background, a large number of short positions could be forcibly liquidated, further accelerating the price increase.” He predicts that if the short positions are squeezed out, Bitcoin could reach $125,000 within the next 30 to 60 days.
On-chain analyst CryptoVizArt offers a different perspective: Bitcoin’s “True Market Mean” (TMM) shows that the average holding cost of active holders is currently above the current price, meaning holders are overall in a loss. Since 2016, sustained dips below this mean often coincide with the most severe downturn cycles of Bitcoin, including the bear markets of 2018 to 2019 (maximum decline of 57%, lasting 282 days) and the declines following the Luna and FTX collapses in 2022 to 2023 (maximum decline of 56%, lasting 339 days).
Analysts point out that these two judgments are not mutually exclusive — the short squeeze triggered by extremely negative funding rates and the structural pressure from active holders being in overall loss can coexist. The former may trigger a sharp rise, but ultimately, it could be absorbed by selling from those in loss. The future trend may depend on whether the US-Iran ceasefire can be extended beyond its expiration next week.