April 17 Afternoon Analysis

First, on the Middle East side, the US-Iran negotiations have collapsed, and the US military has directly sealed the Strait of Hormuz, which is a 20% global oil transit route. Iran is not willing to show weakness either, responding strongly. The ceasefire agreement is until April 22, and even now, no extension has been agreed upon. There could be new developments at any time, so the risk premium on crude oil will fluctuate repeatedly. Bitcoin and altcoins will also fluctuate sharply with risk aversion sentiment.

Next, let's talk about the yellow-haired guy: Powell recently spoke very hawkishly, saying he will not cut interest rates unless inflation clearly declines. A rate cut in June is basically unlikely, and possibly only once for the whole year. Moreover, on April 14, they started shrinking the balance sheet, reducing monthly bond purchases from 40 billion to 25 billion, tightening liquidity. This directly led to a strengthening dollar, with the yellow and white coins being suppressed, and the crypto market also coming under pressure.

The White Paper overall performs calmly, with little volatility. In the short term, it is recommended to buy high and sell low!

Range: 75,200-75,700, target 73,200-73,700.

For medium to long term, first watch the 70,000 level; if broken, continue to look lower.