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Good news realization or the start of a market trend? The answer might keep bulls awake at night
Many people are now betting on one question:
If the US and Iran reach an agreement, will the market continue to rise or top out?
The answer often lies not in the event itself, but in the expectations gap.
The current issue is:
The market has already taken "agreement reached" as the baseline.
This leads to one result:
The actual good news is no longer good news.
If the agreement is implemented, short-term gains are possible, but it could easily enter consolidation or even a pullback afterward because there are no new incremental stories.
On the other hand, if the process repeatedly stalls, the market might fall while looking for opportunities.
Allocation suggestion:
Reduce emotion-driven assets, increase holdings with "fundamentals support."
Simply put:
Stop buying stories, start buying cash flow.
#美伊局势和谈与增兵博弈