Recently, I keep noticing those “coincidences” in on-chain transfers: A sends to B, and then B sends to C two minutes later, and the comment section starts spinning conspiracy theories… Now I’ve gotten into the habit of breaking down the path first: Is it the same person using different addresses? Is it an exchange consolidating funds? Is it cross-chain/bridge reconciliation happening on the other side? Or is it simply that a router helps you swap coins and hands it over in the process? The truth is, a lot of “mysterious flows” are actually just process designs that are too convoluted.

Over these past two days, we’ve been chatting about RWA, US bond yields, and comparing them with on-chain yield products, and hearing it makes me want even more to map out clearly “where the money comes from and how it goes,” otherwise you end up saying things are stable while the on-chain addresses look like a maze—I really don’t feel sure in my heart.

I’m also impulsive—I get restless when things get lively—but now I force myself to: wait for confirmation, wait for the callback, wait until I’ve figured it out clearly… By the end, I might not buy at all anyway; at least that’s more reassuring.