"Peaceful Bull Market" is coming? Don't rush, it might just be an emotional mirage of a mirage.

The current market narrative sounds very appealing: the US and Iran are about to negotiate, oil prices are stable, inflation has decreased, and risk assets can take off.
It sounds like a fairy tale, but the problem is—fairy tales usually only tell the first half.
The reality is, the core conflict between the US and Iran has never been uranium enrichment for a few years, but regional influence and security patterns. In other words, technical issues can be negotiated, but power issues are very difficult to resolve.
This determines that—even if negotiations succeed—it is most likely a "limited agreement," not a complete reconciliation.
However, the market is pricing it as a "full positive," which lays hidden risks.
So the most likely scenario moving forward is:
News hits → Sentiment peaks → Capital disagreements → Increased volatility.
In terms of operations, I suggest doing two things:
First, don't chase stocks that have already risen;
Second, proactively position in "disagreement assets," such as sectors that have been unfairly punished.
Remember one thing:
The real way to make money is not rushing in when everyone agrees, but standing firm during disagreements. #美伊局势和谈与增兵博弈