Just caught up on cobalt's wild 2026 trajectory and it's honestly worth paying attention to. We're sitting at $56,414 per ton right now—levels we haven't seen since mid-2022—and the whole story behind this move is basically a masterclass in how fast geopolitics can reshape commodity markets.

Here's what went down: The DRC controls roughly three-quarters of global cobalt supply, and when they tightened export quotas in early 2025, it basically flipped the entire market on its head. We went from drowning in oversupply to suddenly worrying about scarcity. Indonesia's nickel-tied output helped soften the blow, but nowhere near enough to fill the gap. By the end of last year, prices had more than doubled. That's not a demand story—that's pure supply-side policy reshaping everything.

The real question now is whether this tightness sticks around. Benchmark's Roman Aubry nailed it when he pointed out that the DRC can adjust quotas whenever they want. So we're basically entering 2026 with this underlying uncertainty: Will they loosen up if prices spike too high and demand starts getting destroyed? That's the million-dollar question.

What's interesting is the geopolitical angle. The US is clearly trying to diversify away from China-controlled refining, and the Lobito Corridor—this massive rail and port project connecting the DRC and Zambia to Angola's coast—could be a game-changer. If it works, transport costs drop 30%, and suddenly you have multiple export routes instead of China-dominated infrastructure. But that takes time to build out.

On the demand side, it's not all doom for cobalt. Yeah, LFP batteries are eating market share—they're cheaper and China loves them—but NCM chemistry still dominates in North America and Europe where range and performance matter. Plus, cobalt demand outside EVs is actually growing: drones, portables, industrial applications. Analysts are projecting demand could jump almost 80% over the next decade.

Here's what actually matters for investors though: Raw materials could hit 20-40% of battery costs by 2030, sometimes over 50%. That means price swings hit hard. BYD's annual spending on critical battery materials alone could exceed $2 billion. So volatility isn't just a technical thing—it's existential for margins.

The bigger play here is supply chain resilience. With cobalt so concentrated and geopolitical risks so high, investors are starting to look at diversified sourcing. Canadian cobalt stocks are worth watching in this context—they represent exactly the kind of alternative supply the market is hunting for. As sentiment and geopolitics become the real price drivers, having exposure to non-DRC cobalt producers becomes genuinely valuable.

Rawles from Benchmark put it perfectly: even if you think you know the outlook at the start of the year, this can change in a heartbeat. That's 2026 cobalt in a nutshell.