When the S&P hits a new high combined with the deployment of aircraft carriers: Beware of reflexivity traps in geopolitical politics

Friends in the square, in the face of major geopolitical events like the US-Iran situation, we must stay alert at all times: don’t trade based on news, trade based on capital flows.

Currently, the front page headlines are filled with optimistic tones about “a ceasefire agreement being imminent,” but such news is often what the main capital wants you to see. Let’s step outside the news itself and look at the hard data:
The Pentagon’s deployment of 10,000 troops is a real financial mobilization.
The aircraft carrier battle group heading to the Persian Gulf is an investment of sunk costs.
If, as the news says, a ceasefire is imminent, why is the military machine still operating at full speed?

My views:
First, there is very little room for compromise on uranium enrichment timelines. Iran’s top leader has repeatedly emphasized that this is a red line, and the lobbying groups behind Israel also do not allow the US to easily let Iran off the hook. Even if there is a temporary easing for economic interests, this is an extremely fragile agreement.
Second, market sentiment is already extremely optimistic. This is precisely the most dangerous moment. If any turbulence occurs in negotiations (for example, hardliners in Iran obstruct, or Israel’s airstrikes disrupt talks), the S&P’s bullish rally will collapse like an avalanche.
Third, recent allocation suggestions: reduce risk assets, moderately increase holdings of cash or stablecoins. Do not chase high in US stocks out of fear of missing out at this point. If you are eager to participate, you can use a very small position to layout some derivatives that bet on volatility on Gate TradFi, or dollar-cost average into mainstream cryptocurrencies.

Before the fog clears, surviving is more important than earning more.

#美伊局势和谈与增兵博弈