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The real risk is not war, but the market being "too certain."
The most dangerous state of the market is not panic, but "everyone is very sure."
What is the current certainty? — That US-Iran talks will succeed, and the market will continue to rise.
But the problem is: — When everyone thinks this way, risk quietly emerges.
Because once there is a deviation, no one is on the other side to take the opposite position.
This is the biggest hidden danger right now.
From an asset allocation perspective, now is not the time to go all-in, but to focus on defense.
A three-step recommendation:
1. Control your position, don’t go all-in on a single direction
2. Diversify assets to avoid exposure to a single one
3. Keep cash on hand to respond to sudden fluctuations
In one sentence: — You can be bullish, but don’t only go long.