Yesterday's market night session experienced a rapid pullback after a quick rebound, remaining in a high-level consolidation zone, with a technical retest of the 4-hour support. It also seemed like a prelude to a bearish move. Today, Friday, the bulls and bears will have an even more intense battle. During the Asian session, with no news catalysts, there won't be much volatility; it’s still advisable to trade within small ranges, buying low and selling high, mainly paying attention to sudden shifts in direction during the U.S. session. The market sentiment index, fear and greed index, is at 23 (extreme fear), and retail investor sentiment remains subdued. Retail traders are less willing to chase longs. The latest U.S. core CPI data came in slightly below expectations, easing concerns about liquidity tightening, and risk assets are generally taking a breather.

Bitcoin: Bulls and bears are divided; if there is positive news, use the rally to short. My personal view leans toward bearishness; although yesterday’s decline was pulled back, the bearish force is strengthening. There is no serious divergence in the short-term correction. The 4-hour structure still shows bulls extending, but momentum is clearly lacking. Perpetual contract funding rates have been negative for 46 consecutive days (rare after the FTX collapse), dominated by bears, with risks of squeezing still present. BlackRock ETF inflows exceeded $500 million within 48 hours, with $255 million transferred from Coinbase to cold wallets. Medium to long-term outlook is bullish, but warning signs for bears: the daily chart shows a triple bearish divergence (price making new highs while RSI makes lower highs), indicating a potential for a sharp correction.

Support: 73,500-74,000, 72,000-72,500; Resistance: 75,500-76,014, 76,800.
The long-term indicates that the daily bullish momentum is still present, remaining in a rebound cycle. The 50-day moving average has turned upward, providing dynamic support. On the 4-hour chart, MACD continues to expand below the zero line; after the fast and slow lines crossed, the divergence remains unchanged. KDI and RSI are rising but lack strength, evolving into a downtrend, with short-term correction likely. Overall, the medium-term structure has not significantly deteriorated; the “realized market value” of low-position addresses continues to rise, with chips steadily shifting from short-term traders to long-term holders. “Long-term funds” are absorbing market selling pressure.

Resistance: 2280-2300, 2250, 2173-2200; Support: 2366-2388, 2400-2416.